The state of British politics

I’m a 17 year old currently studying A-Level politics at Caistor Grammar School and never has the subject been more fascinating or relevant than now, in this time of political crisis and the collapse of confidence.

For the past hour or so I’ve been giving my own analysis of the state of British political affairs at the moment, having finished watching Brown’s press conference, and I felt that it might be worth collating my thoughts into a nice, neat blog post.

I have been for quite a while now a Labour supporter. Blair was a strong Prime Minister and effective party leader who, contrary to the opinions of most, was a highly principled man – as evidenced by his entry into the War on Terror against the will of the majority. Had he been unprincipled he would have yielded to the majority will and acted as one soliciting the support of the population, valuing political gain above his own moral code.

I am not making a judgement on the morality of the war. That is a highly subjective topic; I would not feel comfortable having to defend my position against those who disagree with it, or at least not until I’ve had time to arrange my thoughts on the matter. What I am saying is that Blair was a man of principle, who stuck to his guns and was not, as he has been painted to be, a man only interested in political gain.

Even through the economic crisis and more recently expenses row have I remained a Labour supporter. Brown is an intelligent man and I consider him to be an extremely competent Prime Minister, following his career as an effective Chancellor. If he has a weakness, it is that he is not quite so competent in the management of his party – and it is partly as a result of this that I can no longer support the Labour Party, although it is not the main reason.

The situation for Labour is dire. I no longer believe that they can win the next General Election, regardless of their performance in government. They could have an unbroken run of perfect decisions from now until the polling booths open and they still will not win – the loss of confidence is too great, the breakdown in trust too final and the wounds to the party’s reputation too deep. They are finished, over with, dead, done and dusted for at least the next decade. In fact I will not be surprised if they remain out of power for two. It has happened before, after all, and even with the overthrow of Thatcher the Conservatives lived to fight on under Major, until finally they were slain in 1997 following the destruction, in the wake of Black Wednesday, of their good reputation for economic management.

On the whole, Labour have made a good government. Their only mistake was to remain in power too long; had the Conservatives won the 2005 General Election it would be Cameron and his lackeys suffering now, in the wake of the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression and amidst the row that is the witch-hunt of expenses. They are suffering for no reason other than that they are in power whilst a crisis which they did not cause, which they cannot stop and which they will never, unfairly, live down has unfolded around them; from this a tide of bad feeling and ill will has developed in the wake of which the current government, no matter the party, can do no right.

I woke this morning to find that the third Cabinet minister in as many days had resigned, James Purnell, the Work and Pensions Secretary. This was damaging but I didn’t think it the end of the world for Labour. I arrived home from school after a challenging exam to find Gordon Brown in the middle of a press conference following his Cabinet reshuffle, and this was when I realised that Labour truly had reached the end of the line. A further four ministers handed in their resignations; although I was glad to see that Alistair Darling – a competent Chancellor who poses no threat to Brown’s authority – had been kept in position, it is still the case that very few governments have ever experienced this number of senior Cabinet ministers resigning and lived to tell the tale. The effect of this, coupled with the appalling council election results – possibly Labour’s worst results in history – is to act merely as another nail in the party’s political coffin.

I backed Labour as the party closest to my political views; I am not partisan. Therefore, remorsefully it must be said, but with no feelings of shame, I can only now renounce my support for the Labour Party.

I do not yet know which party I will support from now on. The Liberal Democrats are, for the moment, the only viable answer; I am no Conservative. In addition, David Cameron’s populist and unprincipled approach to politics disgusts me almost as much as the isolationism and xenophobia of both UKIP and the BNP do.

However, I cannot give my unequivocal support to Clegg and his lot yet; I am a progressive liberal, in the tradition of Lloyd George and the early 20th century Liberal Party. One thing that can be seen in the actions of Lloyd George was the pragmatism required to effectively govern an imperfect nation; his ruthless but necessary push for the Parliament Act of 1911 stands out in particular. In contrast, the Liberal Democrats are hopelessly idealistic and thus not suited for the trial of national government. They would be the perfect party to govern a utopia, but I have no confidence in their ability to bring about that utopia in the first place – someone else must do that.

There is another thing which makes me wary of declaring support for the Liberal Democrats: with 30 out of 34 councils having declared according to the BBC News website, they have lost eight councillors and one council. This is unusual; the Liberal Democrats are usually perceived as being competent in local government, and I was not alone in expecting them to make considerable gains. I cannot back a party which neither fully matches my views nor looks to be on the path towards significant success; one or the other will do, but neither has been achieved in this case.

During the next General Election I will be a fascinated observer. The economic crisis has largely abated, but whether or not the public recognises this will be crucial in determining the magnitude of the Conservative victory – I have no doubts that they will win whatever comes.

If the recovery is noticed then the Conservatives will smash the opposition at the polls and garner an overwhelming majority of seats. If not then I suspect that the picture will be slightly different, with a Conservative majority but with significant gains also for the fringe parties at Labour’s expense.

We live in interesting times indeed.

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